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Messages - Microscopist
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1
« on: Sat 14 Mar 2026 13:58 »
Oh dear,how times have changed in West Yorkshire!Last Huddersfield-Bradford bus at 2216! When Stockport played at home on Friday nights in the late 1960's some of us would go to Huddersfield by bus,then train to Stalybridge,then train to Stockport.Match over at 2115,train to Stalybridge,enough time to visit pub on platform,then train to Huddersfield arrive 2305,then last bus to Bradford[every 15 minutes all day from 0530!] at 2315.Never a cancellation,either!Perhaps someone on Rate the ref could do a PHD on the decline of bus services and its affect on people's lives.................................. Today,Stockport-Stalybridge one train a WEEK.
That one direct train a week will be a "Parliamentry" train. To completely withdraw the service would require an Act of Parliament, so its easier to run one serive a week. Only in Britain ....
There has been a major improvement in recent years. There used to be just one train from Stockport to Stalybrihdge, early on Friday morning, if I remember correctly, with no return. Now the service has doubled, it now offers one train both outward and return on Saturdays instead. Progress indeed!
None of which would have been any use to me in my student days travelling home to Reddish from Leeds for the week-end.
2
« on: Thu 05 Mar 2026 19:16 »
Neither are penalties. Not sure what the fuss is about..
The point is that this type of thing happens week in week out and would generally be given as a foul (in both cases) but we have to decide whether we really want to outlaw fabricated fouls or not, if not false hurrah’s for the exceptions whilst blind eyes are turned to the majority the dimply exacerbates the problem. Either we stamp it out or we accept it as part of the game.
3
« on: Thu 05 Mar 2026 17:34 »
Sometimes ‘buying’ a foul is seen as legitimate, and often praised as clever. The game has to decide whether simulation, elaboration, or cleverly manufacturing a foul should become a fair part of the game or not. If the penalty and red card awarded favouring United in the Fulham game is not retrospectively sanctioned then simulation is fair game.
Moving on, if Mr Gallagher’s view that the Rhodri penalty claim was a foul by Rhodri then in my view he should be put out to pasture. Whether it was a penalty or not, nobody really knows.
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« on: Sun 01 Mar 2026 18:13 »
Newton reckoned that every force has an equal and opposite reaction, obviously football wasn’t played in his day.
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« on: Sun 01 Mar 2026 15:36 »
If any of you are interested in a relatively factual FAQ of the 115 Charges, though compiled by a City fan he claims no specific 'in the know' information but bases his answers on his professional experience. 28 Jan 2024
Add bookmark #1
Mods, this has been a request on and off in the 115 Charges thread for some time. Feel free to move but I thought it might warrant a thread of its own. The idea here is that the information is essentially factual with very little/no opinion thrown into the mix. There are also some significant simplifications where technical legal/accountancy matters are concerned.
Why 115 Charges?
There are not 115 wholly different charges. There are essentially three charges:
City overstated their revenue City understated their expenses City have failed to comply with various regulatory requirements
The first relates principally to the allegation that the sponsorship from Etihad and Etisalat was in fact disguised equity funding from ADUG
The second relates to the Al Jazira ‘second contract’ for Roberto Mancini and image rights players for (IIRC) Yaya Toure in particular
The third includes a series of allegations that we have not complied with the PL’s FFP rules, UEFAs FFP rules and the PLs requirement that we should co-operate with an ongoing investigation.
It is however alleged that each of these alleged offences is committed across multiple seasons. One separate charge relates to each instance of alleged wrongdoing over each of the 10 seasons or so that the charges cover.
If you want an analogy, imagine you drove from London to Manchester at a steady 100mph and got caught by 12 speeding cameras. Each represents a separate charge, but they are different aspects of the same basic allegation.
Do these allegations amount to fraud?
The allegations that we have knowingly misrepresented the accounts across multiple seasons are tantamount to allegations of fraud. This is because the allegation is that City's directors signed off accounts knowing that they did not represent a true and fair view of City's finances. That is an offence under the Companies Act. So while the PL have not accused us outright of fraud, the conduct they are alleging against the club would, if proved, amount to fraudulent conduct.
"I'm not saying you're guilty of arson, but I saw you set fire to your own house."
Moreover, it is inherent in the charges that other companies who have included the amounts of (say) the sponsorship deals in full must have conspired with City to ensure that the true figure was artificially (and dishonestly) inflated. Or, in the case of Al Jazirah, that the employment contract with Mancini was a complete sham. This too is essentially an allegation of fraudulent conduct.
The allegations of regulatory breaches (eg non-co-operation) are not fraudulent in their nature.
What is the standard of proof?
The standard of proof applied by independent panel will be the balance of probabilities. This means that the tribunal will need to consider whether it is more likely than not that City have committed the conduct alleged against them.
However, because the allegations are serious, the evidence which it would take to satisfy the panel to that standard would need to be correspondingly cogent. It is inherently unlikely that the boards of several large companies would all conspire to commit several legal and regulatory breaches, so to satisfy the panel that this is what actually happened, the evidence of that will need to be particularly cogent.
What is the evidence relied on by the PL?
The PL investigation was opened very shortly after the UEFA investigation, and appeared to lie dormant while the case with UEFA/CAS ran its course. It is not known that there is any more evidence available to the PL than was available to UEFA, namely the Der Spiegel leaked emails.
That said, the PL pursued numerous disclosure applications against City which were successful. We simply don’t know what further evidence there may be.
Are any of the allegations time-barred?
Yes. UEFA’s FFP rules had a 5 year time-bar, which had expired in the case of some of the charges. There is no similar time-bar under the PL’s rules but the relationship between City and the PL is essentially that they are both parties to the same contract. English law says that you have 6 years in most cases to bring a claim for a breach of contract.
The charges were brought at the beginning of 2023, so on the face of it, a lot of the claims relating to anything preceding season 16/17 will be time-barred. However, there is a principle that if the breach of contract was knowingly concealed, that six year period will begin not when the breach actually occurred but when the complainant became aware of it (or, if earlier, should reasonably have become aware of it.)
So the question of the seriousness of the charges and the question of what is time barred go hand in hand. The negative, from City’s point of view, is that the time-bar is not necessarily a complete defence to the more historic charges (which is actually most of them). The positive, from City’s point of view, is that to succeed on the most serious charges, cogent evidence will be needed to show that City have committed the breaches alleged. If that evidence is not there, the charges will fail and would be time-barred anyway.
Are City in danger?
It depends on how you define ‘danger.’ Based on the evidence that exists within the public domain (eg the evidence in the 'opens skies' case in the USA) it is very difficult to see how the PL can possibly succeed, at least on the most serious charges. The non-co-operation charges may be less difficult to establish, not least because City took the PL to the courts in a number of respects.
That said, (a) we don’t know what (if any) further evidence the PL may have, and (b) one possibility is that the PL are pursuing us precisely because they think the evidence they can point to will be sufficient to make the charges stick.
What is certain is that if the charges are proved, or substantially proved, the sanctions applied against City would be very very serious. Everton have had a points deduction of 10 points on the basis of one admitted allegation of breaching FFP in one season. If the charges are proved, it is difficult to see that anything short of relegation (whether by means of a massive points deduction or otherwise) AND a massive fine would meet the justice of the case.
If the non-cooperation charge alone was proved but all the others were dismissed, I would anticipate a fine. A points deduction for a non-co-operation charge would in my view be somewhat disproportionate.
Can City appeal to CAS if they lose?
No. There is however a right of appeal to a further Independent Panel. They would not be starting again and looking at all the same evidence from the beginning, however, they would be concentrating on whether the first panel have made an error of law or arrived at a decision that is perverse on the evidence before the first panel.
Thereafter there is no further appeal but there is a right of further legal challenge based on errors of law,
As a practical proposition it is unlikely if City lose at the first stage and their appeal is also dismissed, that (unless both panels have got it disastrously wrong) that there would be much prospect of success in a further legal challenge but you never know.
If fraud is alleged, why haven’t City been charged by the criminal authorities?
It would have been unusual for (say) the Serious Fraud Office to commence an investigation in a case like this where what is alleged is a breach of the PL’s internal rules. However they tend not to announce it from the rooftops when they are commencing an investigation, especially if that would result in (for instance) evidence being destroyed.
If the charges are proved (and there is no appeal), it is quite probable that a criminal allegation would be launched. Given how high-profile this case is, it would be difficult for the SFO to resist the pressure to launch their own investigation.
However, the standard of proof in a criminal case is even higher – it is beyond reasonable doubt – and the age of some of the charges means that it would be very difficult to persuade a jury that the accounts signed off 12 or 13 years ago were knowingly/fraudulently mis-stated. Moreover, if City lost it is almost inevitable that there would be an appeal, which would mean that the events in question were even more historic.
Never say never, but criminal charges seems very very unlikely even if the PL charges are successful.
EDIT #1
Added in answer to a separate question
Who sits on these panels?
About five years ago the PL established a panel from whom the members of any independent disciplinary commission will be appointed. There are about 12 members of the panel. In practice they tend to be practising KCs or retired judges. The chair of the panel is Murray Rosen KC. That does not mean he sits on all the independent commissions or that he will sit on City’s. Usually three will be appointed by the chair of the panel to hear any particular disciplinary case.
Murray Rosen might sit on City's panel, but in the event of an appeal he would have to appoint the members of the appeal panel from a similar but smaller pool. To avoid the argument that he would hand-pick a panel that would be the most likely to uphold his own decision I doubt he would sit on the first panel, though he might sit on the appeal.
The members of the panel tend to be people with an interest in football and they may or may not be match-going regulars at any particular team. I would imagine that the rules under which they are appointed require them to state their team allegiance and they will be barred from hearing disciplinary cases involving those teams.
That said, these are serious players in a game where being a serious player is the norm. They would only be appointed as KCs/Judges having demonstrated outstanding intellect and integrity, and appointment to a high-profile disciplinary panel would require them again to demonstrate those qualities. This is not some Kangaroo Court, it will be an assembly of highly trained, widely experienced and intellectually formidable individuals.
There is sometimes an argument raised along the lines that membership of a disciplinary or similar panel of that sort both constitutes a source of income and is a matter of status, and so there is an inevitable tendency on the part of members of those panels to recognise the hand that feeds them. Whether or not an individual panel member is biased depends on the facts of a case. If these were valid criticisms in themselves every member of every pool of potential members of a disciplinary committee would be biased. In fact, whilst not peanuts, the fees received for hearing a disciplinary case like this would make up only a small proportion of their overall remuneration for the year. Panel members are appointed because of their independence, not because they are likely to surrender it, and many have a tendency to demonstrate that independence.
Of course, everyone gets it wrong from time to time. Sometimes a judge just doesn’t see things the same way that a claimant or defendant does. But there is no reason whatsoever for thinking, at least at this stage, that the hearing will be anything other than full, detailed, scrupulously fair and intellectually rigorous. This panel is to the individuals who made the PL’s charging decision what CAS was to UEFA ‘s first committee.
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« on: Sat 28 Feb 2026 07:22 »
Early in my career I had to defend a reprobate for whom there was very little to be said meaningfully by way of mitigation so somewhat desperately I tried the old tactic about the unfortunate individual being in the twilight of his years, only to receive this rebuke from the Bench "the defendant is four years younger than I am"
I once spent a fascinating afternoon with the now late Richard Rampton. I was advising him in relation to the scientific basis of cooking burgers. He had many anecdotes including one where the company was prosecuted in Cheltenham. The company had had some difficulty in obtaining permission for its ‘restaurant’ in Cheltenham and was subject to relatively intense scrutiny by the local authority. The company also had a ‘never plead guilty’ policy following a maximum fine and considerable negative publicity for the heinous offence of not having a nail brush in the staff loo. Anyhow the case involved a schoolboy who had discovered a caterpillar in his burger. Richard Rampton decided to give the boy a hard time telling him that now was the time to own up to his schoolboy prank. When he had finished the prosecution called the boy’s mother. As he looked from the mother to the lady magistrate he came to the conclusion that they probably used the same dress shop. The response of the mother in describing what happened -‘Well I had picked up Johnny from choir practice …’. Led Richard to anticipate another maximum fine!
7
« on: Fri 27 Feb 2026 19:57 »
Worth adding that I heard the Kieran Maguire interview and the 40 to 60 point penalty was just his guesswork based on what other teams have been deducted for much lesser charges. It can only be guesswork as the hearings have been held in complete secrecy with everyone involved signing legally binding NDAs, which unfortunately just adds to the various conspiracy theories doing the rounds. He also added that whatever the outcome is it is highly likely that the "losing" party will appeal, so it could well be that it isn't sorted out this decade.
I don't believe that Mr Maguire knows any more than you or I what the real situation is and this contra normality presumption of guilt is rather tiresome. The only thing I would agree with is that whatever the judgrment there will most likely be an appeal.
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« on: Fri 27 Feb 2026 02:13 »
The problem is that no one apart from those directly involved in the proceedings knows the substance of the charges. Simply the charges relate to particular EPL regulations and years. The charges imply serious and deliberate fraud and the connivance of other parties including auditors. Without this seriousness of the charges many of the charges would be time barred. One might also think that the civil authorities would have taken action if matters were as serious as is being portrayed.
The initiation of this process were the hacked and manipulated emails published in Der Spiegel on which basis the Court of Arbitration for Sport rejected the substantive UEFA charges, though did find City guilty of non-cooperation (Though City would argue that someone in UEFA was leaking information given to them in confidence).
At the moment it isn’t clear what additional evidence the EPL have over and above that presented to the CAS. Similarly we do not know what City describe as ‘irrefutable’ evidence to counter the charges comprises. So speculation on possible penalties is somewhat premature and it could be argued is largely being done for profit from internet payment based on the number of clicks and increasing readership / viewing figures. It is also noticeable that these speculations tend to be more prominent when City are challenging the establishment clubs on the pitch so cynically it could be seen as gaslighting.
The truth, if it is ever found, lies on a spectrum between the extremes of Mabcester City having committed, along with other parties, a massive fraud and at the other end that this is a malicious attack on Manchester City by a cartel of clubs with American owners. There has been substantial speculation on the fate of City if truth is found to lie toward-the City fraud end of the spectrum but there are also serious problems for the EPL and certain clubs if the truth is found to lie in the direction of a cartel. Whether the truth will be known in our lifetime is rather uncertain. Billy Meredith springs to mind.
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« on: Fri 27 Feb 2026 00:32 »
Should twilight not read golden?
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« on: Mon 23 Feb 2026 23:25 »
These two reams have seen rather a lot of each other and there is another to come. I felt some scores were being settled. And some controversial decisions in the games hasn’t helped in that regard. The first yellow for Silva was for a challenge that often wouldn’t be given as a foul, so two wrongs if not making a right at least cancelling each other out. Burn was certainly ‘putting himself about a bit’ and I suspect that was Silva getting a bit of retribution. I think it caught Burn by surprise! There did seem to quite a lot of inconsistencies but they seemed to me to be fairly evenly distributed.
We also had a bit of a collector’s item with a yellow card being given for hauling Haaland to the ground, think size differential argument might be more widely taken into account than we think?
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« on: Sat 14 Feb 2026 23:30 »
I wonder if PGMOL will tell us that the red card was wrong because 'the ball was travelling away from goal'.
Normal DOGSO criteria become much looser when the keeper has taken himself out of the equation. Someone moving wide will normally have a lot to do because of the presence of the keeper, take the keeper away and it becomes vastly easier to score.
Perhaps that consideration doesn’t apply to games played ar Wembley?
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« on: Sat 14 Feb 2026 21:46 »
I wonder if PGMOL will tell us that the red card was wrong because 'the ball was travelling away from goal'.
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« on: Fri 13 Feb 2026 18:55 »
ajb95 I didn’t watch the wolves game because A I’m not a city fan and B it was a sat 3pm KO so not on tv and I was out refereeing myself. Nor did I watch the Fulham match again for the similar reasons again I don’t have tnt although I wouldn’t have watched it had it been free. So therefore I cannot comment on any other incidents from the game. But as far as I’m aware you can’t be sent off for “pushing” and I think with the doku incident you’re describing the outcome of an action. Referees judge incidents on what they say not whether the player was injured or not so not sure a fair comparison can be made the point I was making, and of course this incident didn't get nearly so much publicity as the foul by Foden. There were two offences. A hard two handed push in the back when the player is running in front of you into clear space and when the force is enough to cause the player to fall forward is generally a yellow card for preventing a promising attack. That was followed by a stamp on the ankle very similar to the challenge by Foden which is being. advocated as a red card in its own right.
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« on: Thu 12 Feb 2026 23:34 »
RefWatch agrees, Foden should have received a red card albeit perhaps accidental. We, that is me, are none the wiser about SFP.
It wasn’t accidental. It was a violent premeditated act that should have been spotted on field by 3 very competent officials. You shouldn’t need VAR for that. This is one thing that annoys me: players get sent off for cat catching players with a follow through despite genuine attempts to play the ball yet tackles like this where there is no chance of playing the ball to unpunished. Football is all wrong
Don’t suppose you watched all of the City v Wolves game, I say this because it might have added some action to support your anti-City / Rhodri agenda. The last ten minutes or so of that game was a bit Wild West like in character. Elsewhere I’ve mentioned the corner awarded by the referee (according to eye witnesses) when the ball appeared to remain in play. There was also, in the context of rhe earlier non-penalty incident, a surreal handball award against a Wolves player fairly high up on the arm which was firmly against his arm. Included in this episode were three very unpleasant challenges. Not sure I’ve got them in the right order but Rhodri made a very nasty on challenge on Andre. It wasn’t a particularly forceful challenge but I would have expected an ex-professional footballer to have recognised how potentially injurious it was. It consisted of him using his knee to form a fulcrum against the side of Andre’s knee putting a bending motion across the knee. It looked to me intentional although I am not like some claiming mind reading qualities. Andre was very angry apparently also feeling that it was an intentional act. Only a free kick was given which in my eyes was extremely lenient. It seemed as though Andre’s colleague Mane also shared his view that Rhodri’s action was not acceptable as he launched what seemed to me to effect retribution with a challenge on Rhodri - Rhodri saw it coming and was able to ride the challenge. In this context and returning to the Foden challenge there was in my view a more obvious red card challenge on Doku. Doku was breaking away from Mosquera who pushed him forcefully with both hands causing Doku to fall forwards whilst his foot landed studs first on the side of Doku’s ankle. I feel this was rather worse than Foden’s challenge (which I’m not defending) in that it had the two elements of foul play, the push in the back and the impacting of the foot into the ankle. In my view both challenges could be considered to be red cards but for me the real problem as I have stated elsewhere is that no-one, from looking at the decisions of our top level referees in tandem with VAR, could reliably deduce where the boundaries lie between fair challenge, foul challenge, yellow card challenge and red card challenge. That seems to me a more serious problem for football to try and minimise and some of the contorted pronouncements that we get in the aftermath of particular incidents seems to be of much real help.
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