I would be very surprised if the FA Cup Final ( if we are back to relative normality by then and they choose someone who has not had the honour before ) goes to anyone else but Craig Pawson. Mind you, that appointment has certainly thrown up many surprises in the past.
Moss in 2015 comes to mind for example, thought it would have been clattenburg at the time however he was appointed a year later.
Yes, that was one of the biggest surprises, unless one had an inkling of the 'politics' which were already being played out in the FA.
Going back many years, the appointment of Derek Nippard in 1978 ( the year of Ipswich's triumph I cannot resist pointing out ! ) was a very major surprise as most people assumed the honour was going to John Gow who was in his last season and was not disbarred by geography.
The appointments of Roger Milford and Jeff Winter raised some eyebrows at the time.
Now it appears it is far harder for a SG1 referee not to be appointed to the Final than to be so.