I think Oliver is the strong favourite for 2022 - he's done well at FIFA tournaments and attended a WC seminar earlier in the year I believe.
When I get a moment, I will start a thread about Euro 2020 referees (unless someone gets there first!) I think it's quite possible quite a few countries will have two representatives. if so, then England should have a good chance. If it was just a 'one-off exception' again you'd probably say Netherlands was more likely and Spain/Germany just as likely.