The Sky commentators said VAR was going back to look at the approach play before confirming decision so I presume it was for DOGSO as they wouldn't check the APP for SFP. Unless there was a potential penalty or another potential red card beforehand as well of course!
Good point Readingfan I agree with you, most likely DOGSO then.
For me on a technical level it wasn't quite DOGSO (doubt as to attacker getting to the ball first) and it wasn't quite SFP (contact not overly dangerous or forceful but very high) but both were supportable (more so SFP for me actually) and the picture as a whole definitely 'felt' like a red card. In law I think you can absolutely justify a yellow but that would be trying to be too clever, Oliver gave the decision that was expected, accepted and ultimately correct. I also liked how he showed the red card, quickly and with very definite confident body language. I think his interactions with the dismissed player after he showed the red demonstrated how much respect the players have for him.
I think you've summarised that quite well. I agree - it's on the boundary line between DOGSO and SPA, but DOGSO 'feels' right, even if there is some doubt as to whether it's an "obvious" goalscoring opportunity.
If we consider the aspects for such a decision:
Distance: DOGSO
Position: DOGSO
Defenders: probably DOGSO
Control: maybe DOGSO
Direction: DOGSO
Just about enough to justify a caution, but as an AR or a referee in that match (bearing in mind angles and one view), I just don't see me giving/advising anything other than a red card there.
I've seen training clips in recent times where I think referees or associations have been trying to be too fancy. "If it quacks like a duck"...