I was going to suggest Cakir might have a better chance if Karasyov didn't go (Cakir just missed out on my initial guess) but now it looks like both might be unlikely. I'd guess Soares Dias might be next in line, although I'm not fully convinced by him.
I know we said it wouldn't happen, and I still think it's very unlikely, but I wonder if there's any chance of a UEFA country like England having two referees go? Normally I wouldn't really advocate such an approach as I think generally there's been plenty of depth across UEFA and the concept of a 'world' cup should be respected. But I think the UEFA list could be starting to lack a bit of depth if Cakir and Karasyov weren't selected and at least 10 are chosen. There's a few names on the list who really lack experience or who have never really had even knockout stage CL appointments. I feel Taylor and Oliver would both quite comfortably be in the top 10 best referees in Europe if the list does get cut down by a few.
It doesn't sound like Lahoz especially covered himself in glory last night, although none of the Spanish referees really seem to be doing that. When was the last time a Spanish referee really excelled at a major tournament? I don't think a Spanish ref has had a knockout stage game at last World Cup or Euros, and I remember the opening game at Euro 2012 and Germany V Serbia in 2010.
Have FIFA published any details of which referees are on their shortlist from outside UEFA?